Blaseball Prospectus Coffee Cup Power Rankings, Round 3

It seemed rather silly to have power rankings for only four teams, so we were going to forgo this round and just offer predictions. But then we realized: how can we invoke hubris if we skipped such an ill-advised ranked list of just four teams? How can a team point & laugh at us if we do not give them further reasons to do so? Let’s do this.

Caveats: Will we have a Coffee 3, Afternoon Tea, or some other type of new weather? If so, then ignore the ranks in this post. Pretend we got it 100% right, because if we had KNOWN about the new whatever, we totally would have nailed it. Obviously.

Methodology: The rankings are in reverse order, 4 to 1, based on the aggregate of ranking from Ace Analyst (AA) and Luckey Haskins (LH). In the case of a tied aggregate, we used the tournament seeding as a tiebreaker. Turns out we were in complete agreement this time around. That portends nothing going wrong with these rankings. Let’s get to the HUBRIS— I mean, POWER RANKINGS.

Society Data Witches

Tournament Seed: #9
Avg. Hitting Stars — 3.56
Rotation Stars — 2.0 • 3.5 • 2.5 • 3.5 • 1.5
Round 1 Power Ranking: 16 (Luckey, Ace)
Round 2 Power Ranking: 4 (Luckey), 6 (Ace)

Round 3 Power Ranking: 4 (Ace, Luckey)

AA: Yes, the Data Witches have continually defied expectations, so there’s definitely an argument to be made to put them higher on the list. However, whether it’s been luck, skill, or one big data crime, I can’t quite see the Witches pulling off a Finals appearance. They looked pretty shaky against Atletico Latte, probably the weakest team in Round 2, and now they’ll have to face an elite title contender in FWXBC. Don’t worry, though: they’ll still be my favorite team, no matter Witch team wins.

LH: If we don’t rank the Data Witches at the bottom, how can they dominate this round? We listed them as a favorite against the Latte, and you saw how close that was. The Society showed that they might be regressing to a mean last week. They also showed that odds against you are actually in your favor, and being a favorite is detrimental to success. Thus, I wish them success by ranking them fourth out of four.

Club de Calf

Tournament Seed: #7
Avg. Hitting Stars — 3.56
Rotation Stars — 4.0 • 2.0 • 3.5 • 3.5
Round 1 Power Ranking: 12 (Luckey, Ace)
Round 2 Power Ranking: 6 (Luckey), 5 (Ace)

Round 3 Power Ranking: 3 (Ace, Luckey)

AA: Like the Data Witches, Club de Calf has consistently defied expectations and won two close series in a row. However, the Club has beaten higher ranked teams and has better star ratings (which, at this point, doesn’t seem to count for much, but still). Additionally, Inter Xpresso — for all their bracket-busting — still appear to be an easier matchup than the mighty FXWBC. However, it’s certainly not an easy road for de Calf; they’ve got a chance, but be calful with this pick. (ok i’ll stop).

LH: If we were ranking teams based solely on their emoji and their amount of Goobie Ballson, Club de Calf shoots to number one. Since we’re supposed to take ALL factors into account, I can only put them at number three. They have their rotation in a better position this round, and they are the ultimate comeback kids. If their series goes to another Game 5, I fully expect to see de Calf in the finals. But that Game 4 matchup looks so heavily in Xpresso’s favor, I’m giving the edge to the X factor.

Inter Xpresso

Tournament Seed: #14\
Avg. Hitting Stars — 3.72
Rotation Stars — 5.5 • 3.5 • 4.0 • 3.0 • 4.0
Round 1 Power Ranking: 8 (Luckey), 5 (Ace)
Round 2 Power Ranking: 3 (Ace, Luckey)

Round 3 Power Ranking: 2 (Ace, Luckey)

AA: Xpresso, who I had 5th in our initial power rankings, continue to climb after knocking out Heavy FC in 4 games. They’ve got a slightly tougher slate than FWXBC, as Club de Calf has already knocked out two pretty strong teams, but Xpresso, who have a solid rotation and a star-studded lineup, show no signs of letting up. This is a team that really knows how to Xpress their talent, and it might just earn them a trip to the finals. (ok i’ll actually stop).

LH: Can’t stop, won’t stop. Am I referring to my colleague’s wordplay, or the Inter Xpresso juggernaut? A balanced rotation, a solid if top-heavy lineup with Holden Stanton providing 4* quality at the bottom half, and a pedigree of defeating skilled teams. Xpresso are fully capable of wrapping up Round 3 in dominant fashion, and they probably need to. Club de Calf is notorious for hanging around and escaping with the series win. If Inter Xpresso can weather the unknowns of Round 3 & keep the series to four games or less, the Finals are in their sight.

FWXBC

Tournament Seed: #5
Avg. Hitting Stars — 3.83
Rotation Stars — 5.0 • 4.0 • 3.5 • 3.5 • 4.5
Round 1 Power Ranking: 2 (Ace), 1 (Luckey)
Round 2 Power Ranking: 1 (Ace, Luckey)

Round 3 Power Ranking: 1 (Ace, Luckey)

AA: I ranked them #1 last time, and I see no reason not to do it again. FWXBC dominated fellow powerhouse Milk Proxy Society in Round 2, and face the surprising but uneven Data Witches in the Foamy Four. As we’ve said before, this team has one of, if not the most consistent lineup/rotation of the whole tournament, and they’ve been playing like it, too. If they’re really an ex-blaseball club, it’s only because they’re playing a whole different splort.

LH: The Flat White had been my pick to win it all since the beginning, which means I’m really worried to see them against the Society Data Witches. The rotations are aligned in such a way that FWXBC’s significant advantage is slightly diminished. Despite my jitters, FWXBC has been such a model of consistency on their march to the Finals, white flag held high, and I don’t see them faltering here. With that vote of confidence, I commit these power rankings to the realm of Hubris.