Power Ranking Rankings: Team Estimatable Edition, Part 1

By IfhBiff (@Gizmo aka Ifhbiff on Discord) 

This is the first in a series of articles that come out of data I accumulated from 19 seasons of BNN Power Rankings.  As we spend our time in the Baby Grand Siesta, I will be slicing this data into different ways of looking back at the history of Blaseball and BNN, specifically the Power Rankings. For this first time around, we look at the combined data per team. How close was BNN every season for your team?  What’s the final average of those differentials?  Bottom line… we aren’t Estimating the teams; we judge how Estimatable the teams are. 

In a world asking “Where is BNN?”, this article asks: “How far off was BNN?”

HOW TO READ EACH TEAM CHART

The blue bar per season indicates what rank BNN predicted for the team that season. The red bar indicates how well the team did that season (determined by the total number of Win Objects at the end of the regular season. If a tie-breaker was needed, the lower number of non-wins was used. After that, teams were co-ranked as a tie. Divine Favor is *not* used). A checkmark indicates that BNN correctly estimated the team’s final rank. Otherwise, the number shown is the difference between prediction and actual.

NOTE ON DATA COLLECTION: (Season 19 was treated as if Wins mattered, so the team that genuinely had the most Win Objects at the end is #1; however, because of the Uppy Downy nature of Season 24, whatever final record that shows on blaseball.com was used. Because I’m tired, people, and math hurts.)

THE PRETTY WELL ESTIMATED

#24: Worms

Seasons Estimated: 12
Average Differential: 2.75
Biggest Miss: S24, -10*

We start this list off with my team— the most Estimatable team in Blaseball: The Worms. We pretty much knew when they were bad, knew when they’d get better, and knew when they’d try to Bottom Dwell again. My only note is the asterisk for Biggest Miss: Since Season 24 was Season 24, the only other time BNN wasn’t pretty close is Season 14. The Worms were 15th in only their 2nd season… which surprised even me.

#23: Fridays

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 2.89
Biggest Miss: S14, -12

The first of two teams with DNF (Did Not Finish) for Season 24. BNN starting Power Rankings belies just how long that drought at the start was. Like several other teams at the start of Blaseball, the Fridays’ W/L record was played for laughs. But they ended up staying solid for a long time. That huge miss in Season 14 isn’t even directly their fault: They played the newly High Pressurized Moist Talkers in a season with a lot of Flooding, twenty-one times… and went 3-18.

#22: Spies

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.2
Biggest Miss: S21, -11

Spies ||Good||. It’s been a pretty steady truth for most of Blaseball history, and certainly for the bulk of the BNN Power Ranking era. But they always have the good and the bad that comes with their credo… they are just a perfectly normal team, certainly not flashy enough for anyone to look too closely at them. They made it to their first Finals in Season 20— but the attention cost them: by the next season, Consumer attacks ravaged the team, they Magnified Dudley Mueller just in time for them to head to Hades while their big Offseason acquisition, Commissioner Vapor, took a while to adapt to their new home.

#21: Tigers

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.37
Biggest Miss: S16, -9

BNN was a season too late in predicting when the mighty Tigers would finally fall from grace. We were also a little too generous on how high the resurgence would go. But when the bottom fell out… we knew it, they knew it, and it helped BNN make the Tigers one of two teams we perfectly predicted 4 times (more about this in the next blurb).  Not that the Tigers would realize this since they Never Look Back, of course.

#20: Crabs

Seasons Estimated: 17
Average Differential: 3.41
Biggest Miss: S16, -20

The Crabs, more so than any other team in Blaseball, are a story told in chapters.  One of the simpler ones is this chart, which I title “Why Are The Crabs Estimatable: Purple Box Edition.” From Season 6 through Season 10, even when they weren’t destroying Suns or Ascending, they would end the regular season with the best record in Blaseball. For readers who weren’t around at this point, there’s another chapter you may not realize from this… they were awful from Season 1 to Season 5.  But from Season 6 to Season 10, they were the top record for 5 seasons straight, and we knew they would be. They are still the only team perfectly predicted 5 times, and we haven’t gotten them right since Season 10. Since their return, the Crabs have been mercurial; we know that they are capable of Claws Up or Claws Down at any given season, and BNN tries to keep up with when it happens; that -20 in Season 14 was the record for biggest miss for a long time.

THE JUST ABOUT ESTIMATED

#19: Garages

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.4
Biggest Miss: S6, +11

“BNN & The Garages play Keep Away”

– Season 15, BNN says the Garages will be 23rd.  They end up 24th.
– OK, says BNN… Season 16, the Garages will be 24th.  They end up 23rd
– Season 17, the Garages decide to add Hopscotch to the mix and jump up to 13th.
– “We don’t believe you”, says BNN, as we predict 24th for Season 18.  They end up 22nd.
– “OK we’ll meet you halfway?”, says BNN, and predicts 19th in Season 19.  Garages end up 23rd again.
– Season 20, “How about 22nd?” – BNN.  “We really like 23rd.” – The Garages.
– Season 21, BNN gives up, tries predicting 23rd for the first time since Season 15.  Garages agree, finish 23rd.
BNN & the Garages hold hands and smile.

-fin-

#18: Tacos

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.68
Biggest Miss: S24, +11*

The Tacos, like the Fridays above, were a team that was notoriously terrible until they weren’t. Unlike the Fridays, the Tacos rise was tangential to one of the most iconic fan moments in Blaseball history: the Snackrifice. And then like the Worms above, the Tacos’ biggest miss comes with an asterisk because it’s Season 24: Before that, we (like many folks) didn’t know how much Walk in the Park would help all of the Wild Low in Season 11: then we doubled down on the mistake and didn’t realize how much losing Walk in the Park would reduce the Tacos’ offense. I’d say they’ve recovered nicely; Taco Baco no longer means getting swept in the finals.

#17: Wild Wings

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.79
Biggest Miss: S7, +12

Ah, bless the Wild Wings. Their Season 7 Championship stands as the biggest beacon of light for the statement “Stats don’t matter.” And of course, that season is BNN’s biggest miss¹ for the Wings. But thanks to their trilogy of futility, they join the Tigers as the other team that BNN perfectly predicted 4 times. In fact, between the Tigers and the Wild Wings, BNN correctly predicted #24 five seasons in a row!²

¹ (Author once again reminds you that UnWins in Season 19 are a fever dream that he will continue to deny; BNN’s rankings and this data’s comparisons are based on how the league would have looked if they were traditional wins.  Otherwise, the Wild Wings would be +23 and that little oddity is saved for a different bunch of goofballs in Part 2 of this series)

² (Streak ruined by the aforementioned goofballs.  They know who they are.)

#16: Millennials

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 3.8
Biggest Miss: S22, -10

Would the Mills have dropped from the upper echelon in Season 16 even if Chorby Soul didn’t return to Battin’ Island? Probably. Would they have dropped as far, and needed three seasons to climb back out again? I don’t know.  I have to guess so. But in lieu of research, here’s a photo of my Lego minifig versions of a Consumer and Chorby Soul:

You’re welcome.

#14(T): Magic 

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 4.37
Biggest Miss: S14, +15

Magic Goo?  One of the original teams who dared ask “WHERE IS BNN?!” We didn’t give the Magic enough credit from Seasons 10 through 13— but really it was their rise in Season 14, in the face of tragedy and change in Yellowstone. Though we may not have even realized it at the time, “Magic Goo?” was a watershed moment for the Power Rankings: starting in Season 15, BNN turned around and really started to get a hang of this Ranking thing (at least for a few seasons, until Season 19 happened and the wheels came off).

#14(T): Sunbeams

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 4.37
Biggest Miss: S10,S13,S24, -12

The Sunbeams are the modern Blaseball standard for building and rebuilding. Like the Tacos before them, BNN completely missed Walk in the Park, and even more so for the Beams because of Base Instincts. Operation: Capri Sunset (Across Seasons 16 to 18), was borne from just as much protection (Shadowing beloved player Nagomi Nava, due to their low Soul count, to avoid Consumer Redaction) as it was from the concept of “tanking.” They knew which way the (solar) winds were blowing.

#13: Moist Talkers

Seasons Estimated: 19
Average Differential: 4.47
Biggest Miss: S22, -10

The Moist Talkers were a consistent powerhouse for many seasons, culminating the run with back-to-back Championships in Season 14 and Season 15. Then they turned into a chaotic, wet yo-yo, dodging BNN like a 10-year old playing tag in the summer whose hands and face were all sticky from that sugary Ice Pop. The momentum finally catapulted them to Evolution in Season 23… and then in Season 24, they licked the Pulsar. Gross, Moist Talkers.  Gross.

NEXT UP in Part 2… the Estimated, the Mildly Estimated, and the one team that has been Grossly Estimated!